Follow Peruvian Bull on X @Peruvian_Bull
on substack at dollarendgame.substack.com, and his YouTube channel Peruvian Bull
The U.S. Crypto Strategic Reserve:
We opened by soliciting Peruvian Bull’s perspective on Trump’s reserve proposal. His response was forthright: he finds it disappointing yet unsurprising. Reflecting on Trump’s July 2024 Bitcoin Conference speech, he observed a lack of technical comprehension—Bitcoin was presented in vague, speculative terms, reminiscent of gambling tokens, possibly influenced by Trump’s casino experience. Peruvian Bull voiced concern that including altcoins like Ethereum and Solana undermines Bitcoin’s distinct value—its trustless, decentralized framework. He highlighted recent SEC moves to dismiss lawsuits against altcoin developers and DEX operators, interpreting this as evidence of regulatory permissiveness favoring broad crypto speculation. We explored potential drivers—donors such as David Sacks and Brad Garlinghouse—and debated whether this reflects corruption or political pragmatism. As Bitcoin advocates, we share a tempered frustration, though its legislative viability remains in question.
GameStop’s Bitcoin Potential:
Next, we shifted to GameStop, a narrative Peruvian Bull connects to his Bitcoin awakening. The 2021 trading suspension—when brokers halted purchases during a short squeeze—revealed systemic vulnerabilities, redirecting him from gold to Bitcoin. He chronicled GameStop’s evolution: on the brink of failure in 2020 with $60 million in cash, it was revitalized by Ryan Cohen’s intervention. By mid-2024, the company had secured $4.6 billion through ATM offerings, a sum substantial enough to redefine its trajectory. Peruvian Bull detailed the squeeze hypothesis: short interest surpassed 200–300% of the float, far exceeding the reported 140%, nearly triggering a financial collapse in 2021. Recent indicators—Cohen following Bitcoin accounts and meeting Michael Saylor—suggest a treasury Bitcoin allocation, potentially positioning GameStop as a leading corporate holder. Yet, he cautioned that Cohen’s influence, though considerable, lacks absolute authority, and retail investor consensus remains fractured.
Macroeconomic Context and Dollar Endgame:
Our conversation expanded to macroeconomic dynamics. Peruvian Bull’s Dollar Endgame thesis asserts that the dollar’s reserve status, strained by Triffin’s dilemma and escalating debt, faces an imminent reckoning. Bitcoin presents a resolution, he argued, while gold’s recent rise—evidenced by disrupted London delivery timelines—signals declining trust in fiat systems. He rejected a gold standard resurgence as infeasible for a digital economy, favoring Bitcoin’s settlement efficiency. Regarding monetary policy, he challenged the Fed’s rate cuts since September 2024, viewing them as an urgent measure to avert a trillion-dollar interest burden within a “debt doom loop.” Quantitative tightening is likely nearing its end, he forecasted, with quantitative easing or default as the only plausible outcomes.
Bitcoin Cycle Dynamics:
Lastly, we examined Bitcoin’s cycle theory. Peruvian Bull upheld its relevance, tying price movements to global liquidity cycles—Bitcoin functions as a leveraged indicator, amplifying excess liquidity. With central banks easing (ECB, Bank of Canada), he projects a peak above $150,000 this cycle, though volatility will lessen as market cap expands. We posed a counterargument: miner rewards now form a negligible supply fraction, potentially diminishing the halving’s effect. He rebutted that liquidity, not supply shocks, drives the cycle, a stance reinforced by Bitcoin’s recovery above $90,000 during our recording. This alignment with macro trends underscores Bitcoin’s enduring strength.
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